CPI is the only thing that matters Wed 8:30 ET.** Consensus 3.7% YoY headline / 2.7% core. If core MoM breaks 0.3%, energy pass-through is confirmed in non-energy categories and the entire rate-cut path is reset in a single session. BofA + Goldman already pushed back cut expectations before the print -- the consensus is leaning hawkish.
Iran is being absorbed by the tape, not ignored.** S&P closed lower today on a rare double-catalyst session (inflation + Iran) but VIX still sits at 18. The non-reaction is structural (passive flows + 27% Q1 earnings beats), not complacency -- which means a real shock has to be large to crack it.
AI capex thesis is being tested in real time.** Intel guided the chip sector lower today; Qualcomm -11%. AMAT Thursday is the cleanest cross-section -- fab equipment is upstream of every chip name. A guide-down here repricings NVDA/ASML/TSM in unison.
Trump-Xi summit Thursday becomes the de-facto Iran deadline.** CEO delegation (Cook, Musk, Fink) makes a deliverable announcement more likely than a pure photo-op. Iran oil exports to China are explicitly on agenda. Watch for any joint language on Hormuz reopening.
Polymarket signal is empty today; Kalshi fed-rate strikes are the cleanest forward read.** Use the Kalshi ladder for the June FOMC distribution -- it's where the real money is positioning between now and the CPI print.
Wed CPI (8:30 ET)** -- the single biggest catalyst of the week. Hot print resets the Fed path; in-line preserves the rally.
Thu AMAT after-close** -- options pricing +/-8.7%. Forward semi capex guide is the AI thesis stress test. Read-across to NVDA/ASML.
Fri Trump-Xi summit Day 2 + Warsh chair vote** -- two binary events landing into the close. Summit deliverables come Friday afternoon Beijing time = US morning. Warsh confirmation timing is calibrated to Powell's term end.
Weekend BRICS Foreign Ministers (Delhi, May 15-16)** -- overlaps the summit. Iran FM expected alongside Saudi/Egypt FMs for back-channel oil talks. Sunday gap-risk catalyst.
Shared state variable across all four events: inflation persistence.** Iran/oil -> CPI -> Fed path -> AI-capex multiples. They aren't independent. A single hot core CPI print on Wed revalues every subsequent event for the rest of the week.
No Polymarket trending/movers data in this fetch.
| Rate | Prob | Vol |
|---|---|---|
| 2.75% | 99% | 52,496 |
| 5.25% | 0% | 785 |
| 5.0% | 0% | 1,961 |
| 4.75% | 0% | 2,095 |
| 4.5% | 0% | 4,093 |
| 4.25% | 0% | 5,660 |
| 3.25% | 0% | 24,750 |
| 3.0% | -1% | 6,328 |
| 4.0% | -1% | 15,501 |
| 3.5% | -2% | 70,792 |
| 3.75% | -95% | 107,262 |
Delta highlighting placeholder — rates rarely move; only colorize when shifted >2pp vs prior snapshot. (Prior snapshot storage not wired yet.)