An Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire and signs of progress in US-Iran talks have flipped the tape risk-on. Nasdaq futures lead +1.8%, the S&P and Dow are green, and Bitcoin is up 3.5% to about $65.5k as the geopolitical bid comes out of safe havens. Oil is the release valve: Crude fell 3.7% today to roughly $74 and Brent is set for an 8% weekly drop as the Hormuz and enrichment-deadline risk premium collapses. Polymarket's 'Iran ends enrichment by June 30' fell 35 points to ~4% and 'Trump agrees to Hormuz transit fees' dropped 26 points, less a deal than a deadline running out. Fed repricing turns hawkish: Speculators now price a 24.6% chance of a July rate hike with cuts essentially dead at 1.5%, and new chair Kevin Warsh is reinforcing it by signaling a hawkish agenda rather than the cuts he was picked for. The 10-year backed up to 4.49%. IPO froth in focus: SpaceX is tapping the bond market for $20B days after a record IPO while sitting on $100B cash, and the issuance wave (SpaceX now, OpenAI later) is drawing 1929/2000 supply-glut comparisons. A late-cycle tell worth respecting even as price grinds higher. Cheap volatility into a loaded week: VIX sits at 16.6, below its 30-day average, just as Friday's Core PCE and FedEx/Micron earnings line up. Implied volatility (IV) looks underpriced relative to how binary the calendar is.
The Fed's preferred inflation gauge prints 0.3% month-over-month (up from 0.2%) into a newly hawkish Fed. A hot number lifts July hike odds and pressures the long end. FedEx Tuesday, Micron Wednesday: FedEx after the close reads global shipping and guidance; trillion-dollar Micron is now an index-mover and the cleanest tell on AI memory demand. Watch the oil snap-back: The ceasefire-driven crude drop reverses fast if the truce frays. Energy is the most headline-sensitive asset this week. Hawkish Fed headlines: Any Warsh or Fed-speaker confirmation of a hike bias is the macro swing factor alongside PCE. Post-OPEX positioning: Last Friday was June quarterly expiration, so dealer gamma is reset and realized moves can run freer than the pinned week prior.